The Receipts
Every graphic, clip, and dataset from the show, with the math behind it. Plus the code.
Thomas argues from vibes. Eric argues from models. The rule of the show is that the math has to be on the table: real sources, methodology you can read, queries you can run. This is that table. The episode posts tell each long-form's whole story; the infographics are the individual charts and clips; the datasets are the raw tables, free to download; and the repos are the open-source code the show is built with.
Episodes — the story of each long-form
The model bet against me
The bet was settled before the Final kicked off. Then the machine, freed of its locked bracket, priced the Final 53/47 Spain — against its own crowned champion. Spain won 1-0. The concession is on camera.
One semifinal decided the whole bet
2,147,483,648 possible brackets, two real entries, and every remaining pick identical except one. The model priced its side of the coin flip at 50.7%. Spain won 2-0.
It wasn't the weather
Thomas texted "delayed an hour because of weather" from a gate. So we rebuilt that entire day of US air traffic — 21,261 flights — as a simulation. Weather loses, five to one.
The datasets — the raw tables
Every US flight since 2003
150+ million scheduled US domestic flights, 2003-2025, cleaned and repacked into one parquet file per year. Free to take, queryable in one line of DuckDB.
Every international football match since 1872
49,477 full internationals — from Scotland 0-0 England in 1872 to the 2026 group stage — plus the Elo and attack/defense ratings the bracket engine runs on.
The repos — the code behind the show
traffic-sim
A traffic simulation engine on NATS: real road networks from OpenStreetMap, AI and human drivers on the same roads, and congestion metrics for answering "which upgrade actually fixes this intersection?" Simulation, not vibes.
traffic-video-analysis
Turns drone footage of a traffic jam into measured stop events: homography stabilization to the road plane, YOLO+ByteTrack tracking, world-frame kinematics. 1,541 tracks, 154 measured stops from 17 seconds of film.
research-bot
Deep research on cheap tokens: one architect, four orchestrators, 262 worker models doing the reading, and an adversarial verification gate. $7.88 instead of $74.50 at list prices.
llm-bench-tower-building
An LLM benchmark where the test is a tower: build the tallest one you can under an uncertainty contract — place a block exactly where you want, or push it exactly how you want, never both.
llm-meter
Measures LLM provider mechanics — time-to-first-token, sustained tokens/sec, cost at list rates — one line of JSONL per probe, a schema any benchmark can consume.
eric-builds-math-models
Self-contained statistical models and the charts built from them — one folder per project, each runs on its own. Home of the World Cup Poisson model, ratings frozen before the round of 32.
sci-fi-analysis
A directed graph of science fiction history: 106 works, authors, and editors, 83 documented influence edges — and seven disputed "firsts" kept as claims, not verdicts. D3 visualization plus Manim scenes.
Infographics — EP 02, The World Cup Bracket Machine
Argentina vs Spain: 14 meetings, one that counted
74 years of head-to-head, dead even at 6-6-2, and thirteen friendlies. Sunday is their first ever final. The model: 53/47 Spain.
The semifinal sheets
Spain, France, Argentina, England: one card each, the model's per-match expectation against what actually happened.
The world learning football
Every international match ever played, 1872-2026, as an Elo map replay. All 22 World Cup titles are gold fireworks. 154 years in 29 seconds.
Been here before
Every 2026 knockout team by how many of the last 10 World Cups it reached each stage. Brazil: 10-for-10 to the round of 16, and out anyway.
The highest-scoring World Cup since 1970
2.91 goals per game deep into the knockout rounds. Only 1970 and the ancient cups ever scored faster.
Infographics — EP 01, Airports
The best and worst times to fly, from 7,001,619 flights
Every US domestic flight of 2025, boiled down to four booking rules. A 6 a.m. departure is late 10% of the time. By 7 p.m. it is 32%.
The morning America stopped flying
January 11, 2023: the first nationwide ground stop since 9/11, replayed from 17,267 flight records. 5 departures in 15 minutes, nationwide, at 8:15 a.m.