The Receipts
Every graphic, clip, and dataset from the show, with the math behind it.
Thomas argues from vibes. Eric argues from models. The rule of the show is that the math has to be on the table: real sources, methodology you can read, queries you can run. This is that table. Each receipt is one document: the artifact at full size, free to download, plus where it came from, how it was made, and the query that reproduces it. The featured posts tell each episode's whole story; the receipts below them are the individual documents.
Featured — the story of each episode
The model bet against me
The bet was settled before the Final kicked off. Then the machine, freed of its locked bracket, priced the Final 53/47 Spain — against its own crowned champion. Spain won 1-0. The concession is on camera.
One semifinal decided the whole bet
2,147,483,648 possible brackets, two real entries, and every remaining pick identical except one. The model priced its side of the coin flip at 50.7%. Spain won 2-0.
It wasn't the weather
Thomas texted "delayed an hour because of weather" from a gate. So we rebuilt that entire day of US air traffic — 21,261 flights — as a simulation. Weather loses, five to one.
EP 03 — Traffic
traffic-sim: which upgrade actually fixes this intersection?
A Go engine that simulates real road networks imported from OpenStreetMap — down to the stop signs. Simulation, not vibes.
traffic-video-analysis: measuring a jam from drone footage
17.04 seconds of aerial 4K of a phantom jam, turned into measured stop events — stabilization, tracking, road-frame kinematics.
EP 02 — The World Cup Bracket Machine
Argentina vs Spain: 14 meetings, one that counted
74 years of head-to-head, dead even at 6-6-2, and thirteen friendlies. Sunday is their first ever final. The model: 53/47 Spain.
The semifinal sheets
Spain, France, Argentina, England: one card each, the model's per-match expectation against what actually happened.
The world learning football
Every international match ever played, 1872-2026, as an Elo map replay. All 22 World Cup titles are gold fireworks. 154 years in 29 seconds.
Been here before
Every 2026 knockout team by how many of the last 10 World Cups it reached each stage. Brazil: 10-for-10 to the round of 16, and out anyway.
The highest-scoring World Cup since 1970
2.91 goals per game deep into the knockout rounds. Only 1970 and the ancient cups ever scored faster.
EP 01 — Airports
The best and worst times to fly, from 7,001,619 flights
Every US domestic flight of 2025, boiled down to four booking rules. A 6 a.m. departure is late 10% of the time. By 7 p.m. it is 32%.
The morning America stopped flying
January 11, 2023: the first nationwide ground stop since 9/11, replayed from 17,267 flight records. 5 departures in 15 minutes, nationwide, at 8:15 a.m.