Transcript: EP 2.5 — Spain vs Argentina: the World Cup Final verdict

2,450 words · 16:14 runtime · every timestamp jumps into the video.

0:00Thomas you had all the data in the world tournaments all the variables you ranked different ranking systems I had a as you say pen and a paper and a heart and a soul and that one Eric vibes one I'll

0:15Eric say math didn't fail me I failed math

0:38Thomas this is episode 2 hello and welcome to math verse vibes where we pit

0:45Eric math

0:47Thomas verse vibes to answer today's burning questions today is episode 2 a which is an update to a reached the end of the semi-finals so we know who's in the finals and in the third place match and we're gonna see which one math or vibe so Eric you do you have the results or the numbers in

1:12Eric excellent I guess we just have to dive right in huh I'm a little little sad dive in you know the math is struggling this week I hate to say it and actually you know maybe I'll start on an upbeat note you know I was actually pretty proud of my math bracket I came in without knowing anything about football soccer and I was able to produce a reasonable bracket I was able to enjoy some football on the TV I watched the games I just didn't download data I actually watched some enjoyed each match I saw

1:54Thomas and

1:55Eric I was able to put out a competitive bracket that got us to a very interesting spot the whole bracket rested on this Spain verse France semi-final so we had all the marbles riding on this it was head-to-head the whole way like the round of 32 we were off by two points and that kind of kept going until we got to semi-finals and honestly it was a coin flip but I will say when I watch the game Spain Spain looked like the better team so I'm not gonna lie and say France looked like the better team and it was a fluke I think Spain had the edge and my math just didn't catch it unfortunately

2:37Thomas exactly so the final score so the the victor has been determined is what you're saying right

2:45Eric that is true so basically we both had Argentina you had Spain in the final I had France in the final and Spain was the victor so

2:55Thomas here we'll go

2:56Eric look at the numbers here so Thomas's bracket 48 points he can score 64 out of 80 best possible my brackets at 42 I can get to 58 out of 80 but at the end of the day they're both whether Argentina wins or not yeah it doesn't really matter we both chose Argentina to win the whole thing and I'm I don't know Spain was looking good but Argentina also look good they're very dominant in the last part of the game for whatever

3:26Thomas reason it's I mean it's because that's their strategy they when they can go no holds barred they can rock it but I just quickly there's a certain phrase you have not yet said Eric so the points

3:40Eric the product vibes have won the point is that the break sure I

3:44Thomas guess that yeah that's maybe that's the best one to get I vibes when math loses in a very dense data availability head-to-head this is a huge huge win for vibes you had all the data in the world tournaments all the variables you ranked different ranking systems I had a as you say pen and a paper and a heart and a soul that one Eric vibes one yeah okay that's all I wanted to

4:17Eric feed

4:17Thomas yeah and

4:20Eric I will say math didn't fail me I failed math I I feel like there's so much data I could have I could have modeled better I could have done something better and I failed math math was not the problem here it was my application of math I just want to make sure that's clear this

4:40Thomas is such an amazing relationship you have with math you immediately bow down see this is the problem every little math is this indestructible unquestionable unstoppable force truth of the universe and you look at you it fails you and you still take the plane it's so just unhealthy I think honestly a lot of people say this math is unhealthy and this just proves it so I think this is important for people to hear and see it happen in real time

5:08Eric I will say this is just one of the battles we have a long war and math is patient math is eternal math will win again just you wait

5:20Thomas those those scary the cultiness of it is quite terrifying okay uh so I won because I'm the fucking best and vibes rock so eat it um sure next battle but I don't care we won and you lost now we have two minutes each to share our takes off this update so making this short and sweet but we're calling two-minute take time so Eric why don't you take two minutes to do takes

5:46Eric excellent excellent yeah so maybe I'll talk about some of the things that I think went well and some that didn't so I think overall I was able to find a bracket that kind of overall was good soccer in general is a little tricky there's a lot of noise it's a low scoring game so you know they're like these small changes can have big impacts on the game but I think there was a lot more like signal that I could have picked up on that I didn't I was like determined to try to use some of these smaller models they actually did quite well and but I think it misses some of the kind of the vibe story that Tom

6:31Thomas yes and I was

6:37Eric just discounting it like it didn't matter I went and grabbed data back from 1890 that

6:43Thomas was

6:43Eric happy because my model could absorb data that might not matter and it didn't negatively affect the results but it also didn't positively affect the results and I feel like I needed some more things that could positively influence them like trying to take more advantage of the group stage data or take more advantage of like some even like I started contemplating analyzing game state a lot more in depth right now I'm just looking at the outcomes of the game but looking at kind of who has the more pressure and maybe timing of the pressure kind of like Argentina games they've been really fun games to watch and I was asking Thomas I'm like how do they keep coming back at the second half like is this their strategy are they like saving some of their subs with strong legs or something but yeah it's like how are they doing this there's clearly something I don't understand thus I can't put it into my models so I'm at a loss here

7:42Thomas there you go there you go great that was two minutes great great take and two take time I'm gonna take two minutes to give my two takes I fully agree I think your lack of ability to do two things which was be immediate in a feedback loop of information aka look at the group stages and even the more recent ones and two like you said signal equals vibes like seeing how Spain plays seeing how Argentina plays knowing Messi's on a deep run and FIFA's kind of backing up like there's these things that are non necessarily quantifiable especially in your elo which was binary kind of like you said the game state isn't there so that's just all jargon to say math ain't got vibes sometimes so I'm very confident in sports or things that are complex in in fluid it when it's not a binary 1-0 and again there's high signal I think vibes might win so that's one state one take my second thing is this was awesome because Eric for the audience to know had said he'd never watched a soccer game or maybe very few he was texting me every game saying this is great with RTT is like this is so strange they are scoring at the end of the game what could be causing that and that is beautiful because that's the goal of the World Cup and honestly vibes to bring people in to the vibe so I think it's a double win I would say for the vibes because not only did I win on paper and with the numbers but also you were brought into something and felt the vibes of the World Cup which is a vibe heavy situation so it was great and I think this is a super fun one and I'm hoping we can find others that have like great data sets but then also a heavy vibe option

9:37Eric agree agree agree I really enjoyed this I was giving you a hard time saying your vibes are over tuned and perhaps they're tuned because like you said they have some truth to them so I concede the point well well played Thomas well played can

9:56Thomas is that applause can you hit the applause button

10:13Eric amazing amazing the crowd loves it yeah so so maybe once the cheering's done you've had your time in the Sun okay like we get it you get the point it's still

10:28Thomas going I can't do we

10:30Eric want to do a quick discussion of the upcoming game and what's your thoughts on it

10:35Thomas yeah yeah it's a good idea so we have the third place match and the five third place match tomorrow final Sunday let's just talk final Argentina Spain I am genuinely torn more torn on this than I think any but I think God I don't know as you can tell as I'm stumbling I think Spain's gonna win

11:05Eric interesting that's

11:08Thomas it I think so

11:10Eric your bracket originally said Argentina so what's changed

11:14Thomas the Spain's performance against France so this goes in the feedback loop piece because England is not anywhere near as good as Spain or consistent or spread out especially on D because I think England had some issues with one of their backs and if they can just hold off Argentina and have a stronger strategy to not give Messi as much space long story short I think Spain is a better team than England and has proven they can stop strong offensive verse France and Argentina has incredible offense when they go full bore but I think Spain can stand up to that given the France game so honestly it's the France Spain game is the is the data point that's giving me this this flip how about you all what do you think

12:06Eric well actually so I went and updated the elo ratings

12:10Thomas okay

12:11Eric and Spain got some decent points from beating France

12:14Thomas yeah

12:15Eric and my math model now says they're the favorites but my vibes on the situation is Tina's still gonna win

12:25Thomas oh yeah

12:26Eric I love their late-game siege I think they're kind of holding back some fresh legs I saw England wasn't subbing in people Argentina subbed in four to five people fresh legs for the last 20 minutes and they were just laying on the siege and I think they can do it again so

12:44Thomas you're right I like that take a lot and that oh god this is crazy that's like my kind of take

12:50Eric I'm learning something from the master yeah clearly know something about soccer you're able to beat math so that's

12:59Thomas true I'm

13:00Eric gonna try to take some wisdom from you and apply it myself I'll

13:04Thomas be so proud honestly I'd be really happy if either team wins but I like this okay what an exciting final match set up we have switcheroo by me and switcheroo by your model but you taking vibes over mom oh man

13:18Eric what a day what a day all

13:21Thomas right well we'll have to see what happens Sunday 2 p.m. central in New Jersey Stadium and we'll see who the ultimate victor is book wait I won still though right

13:32Eric yeah yeah you got the point I have to figure out if I can add the point to the tally here unfortunately I don't know if I remember how to do that though we'll see all right Thomas here here we go I don't want to do this but I have to

13:51Thomas it's gonna feel good it's gonna feel very good

13:54Eric one one

13:56Thomas oh good great soccer soccer score right there very on point drop

14:02Eric it does feel like a soccer score does

14:05Thomas yeah we're consistent

14:06Eric we picked a good round two episode two

14:09Thomas I just you know I want to thank myself for just being so on top of the world and all these moving parts and in my ability to really think through and articulate it I think it's it's um it's incredible I couldn't have done it without myself so eat it and

14:30Eric you roll the exit music please production what

14:35Thomas what what is that I don't know what exit music is oh it's like the chorus

14:41that's

14:43Thomas like a date that would that's

14:45Eric what they do at the award shows to give me a stage I just can't I can't shoo you offstage you get one your point all right

14:53Thomas and I did that I did that right side is only going to continue to climb they got good all right well until next time everybody adios let

15:06Eric us know how the game goes feel free to comment and let us know if you enjoyed it so

15:11Thomas about I'll

15:13Eric bet you that vibes can't plan road infrastructure updates so if we have a congested city that needs help so I'm sure you've experienced them once or twice

15:25Thomas I

15:26Eric bet you can't figure out which upgrade is the better upgrade

15:31Thomas so

15:32Eric I will come up with congested city streets and I will propose three to four upgrades and you'll have to pick between them and pick the best one if you can do that two out of three times or three out of five times you will win the point if you can't and I trick you I get the point

15:52Thomas Eric I'm gonna blow my nose at that congestion problem

15:57Eric Oh congestion is so simple you don't think you don't think they're using heavy math in the city council training department famous

16:06Thomas traffic upgrades are so well executed and thought out I'm sure it's always working well because the math they're using yeah dude let's go I know